SEVIS Report Surprises: No Decline in US International Enrolments

What Happened?

• Everyone expected international student enrolments in the US to fall by 15% in Fall 2025 because of:
  • Visa suspensions
  • Revocations and travel bans
  • Big drops in student visa arrivals in July (–30%) and August (–20%)
• But the new SEVIS data (US Homeland Security’s student records system) showed something completely different:
  📈Enrolments actually grew slightly by 0.8% compared to last year.

This result contradicted all forecasts and surprised analysts.

Why is this surprising?

• Groups like NAFSA and higher education experts thought the US would lose around 100,000 students.
• Instead, SEVIS shows stability (or slight growth).
• Experts now worry the SEVIS data might not fully reflect reality, since:
  • Some universities haven’t reported numbers yet.
  • Students on OPT (Optional Practical Training) are counted as students, even though they are working and not studying on campus, which may have inflated the numbers.

What Analysts Are Saying

• Chris Glass (Boston College): The US system seems more resilient than expected, but affordability is becoming a key factor in student choices.
• Gerardo Blanco (Boston College): This is “statistical cognitive dissonance” the data doesn’t match the story everyone predicted. Stakeholders need to rethink assumptions.
• Fanta Aw (NAFSA CEO): It’s too early to celebrate because this may be “premature data” things could still change as full reporting comes in.

Key Findings in the Data

• Associate Degrees (Community Colleges): +9.1% (around 5,500 more students) → showing students are going for cheaper options.
• Doctoral Students: +2.7% → despite funding cuts, PhD enrolment rose.
• Master’s/Bachelor’s/Language Training: Relatively stable.
• State Differences:
  • Expensive states (New York, California) saw slight declines.
  • Affordable states (Indiana, Florida, Texas) saw notable increases.

Why Does This Matter?

• The expected crisis didn’t happen (at least this year).
• Shows US higher education is more resilient than thought, even under tough visa policies.
• But the growth may be misleading if it’s mostly driven by OPT participants, not actual new students.
• It raises new questions about affordability students are shifting to cheaper states and community colleges.
• Advocates may need to change their messaging: instead of only using the “economic benefits” argument, they must adapt to new political and demographic realities.

Bottom Line:
The US didn’t see the predicted collapse in international enrolments this fall. Instead, numbers rose slightly, largely due to OPT and affordability-driven choices. However, experts caution the data may be incomplete or misleading. It’s a wake-up call for universities and policymakers to rethink strategies, improve data reliability, and focus more on cost and long-term trends rather than short-term panic.

📢Confused about what this means for your study plans in the US?
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