A recent report highlights that international student enrolment in US master’s programs is expected to drop by 15% in the 2025/26 academic year. This is driven primarily by visa challenges and uncertainty around post-study employment opportunities, such as the H-1B work visa and Optional Practical Training (OPT).
Numbers & Trends
- Expected decline: About 64,000 fewer international master’s students than previously projected.
- Previous growth: From 2018/19 to 2023/24, international enrolments grew 6% annually, even as domestic enrolments slightly declined (0.5%).
- Impact by field: STEM programs (like software engineering, computer science, AI, cybersecurity) rely heavily on international students:
- 80% of software engineering graduates
- 77% of computer science graduates
- Non-STEM programs, like education and healthcare, have fewer international students.
Reasons for the Decline
- Visa policy uncertainty
- Changes in H-1B visa rules now favor higher-wage earners.
- Restrictions on OPT reduce post-study work options.
- Surveys show that over 50% of students would not have enrolled if these changes had been in place.
- Declining interest from prospective students
- Studyportals data showed a 50% drop in US interest between Jan–Apr 2025.
- NAFSA data shows 19% year-over-year drop in new international master’s enrolments in Fall 2025.
Potential Consequences
- For universities: Lower international enrolments threaten the financial stability of programs, particularly in STEM and MBA courses.
- For the economy:
- Possible loss of $7 billion in revenue.
- Fewer skilled workers in high-demand tech fields.
- Slower innovation in AI, data science, and emerging technologies.
- For students: Limited post-study work opportunities make the US less attractive.
- For employers: Increased hiring bottlenecks, particularly in STEM roles where domestic graduates are insufficient.
Expert View
Brady Colby, head of market research at Validated Insights, warns:
“The knock-on effects will be felt not just by universities, but by employers, domestic students, and the broader US knowledge economy.”
In short:
The US risks losing its competitive edge in STEM innovation due to a decline in international master’s students, driven by visa and work restrictions. This affects universities financially, reduces the supply of skilled graduates, and could have long-term impacts on technology and economic growth.
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