“Numbers are down – but Starmer will still struggle to win on immigration”

📰 What Happened?

• The UK’s net migration fell sharply: In 2022, net migration was 860,000. In 2024, it dropped to 431,000 – a fall of nearly 50%.
• The Labour government under PM KeirStarmer is taking credit for this drop, claiming their tougher immigration stance is working.
• However, the Conservative Party argues the fall is the result of their previous policy changes, not Labour’s.
• Despite lower migration numbers, immigration remains a major concern for many British voters, especially in working-class areas.
• Starmer has adopted stricter language, calling past immigration “incalculably damaging” and warning about the UK becoming an “island of strangers.”

🔹 1. Net Migration to the UK Drops Sharply

• Key Point: Net migration fell by almost 50% in 2024 — from 860,000 to 431,000.
• Government Stance: PM KeirStarmer’s government sees this drop as a success in line with their pledge to reduce migration.
• Opposition View: Conservatives argue the drop was due to their prior policies.

🔹 2. The Long-Standing Political Divide on Immigration

• Historical Context: Since the 1960s, immigration has influenced British political alignment—shifting from class-based to identity-based politics.
• Notable Event: Enoch Powell’s 1968 “Rivers of Blood” speech revealed deep divisions in public attitudes on race and immigration.

🔹 3. Public Concern Still Strong Despite Falling Numbers

• Public Sentiment: Many voters, especially working-class communities, feel migration pressures public services and jobs.
• Voting Behavior: A significant group still ranks immigration as their top concern—impacting voting trends.

🔹 4. Changing Attitudes Post-Brexit

• Brexit Effect: Public anxiety about immigration dropped after Brexit due to a sense of “regained control” over borders.
• Cultural Confidence: Areas with more diversity and migrant contact tend to be more positive about immigration.

🔹 5. Starmer’s Hardline Tone

• Statements:Starmer called past immigration “incalculably damaging” and warned of becoming an “island of strangers.”
• Criticism: He faced backlash from some Labour members for echoing past anti-immigration rhetoric.

🔹 6. Concerns About Economic and Public Service Pressure

• Think Tank View: Some analysts believe recent migrants may pose a net fiscal cost to the country (i.e., using more public resources than they contribute in taxes).
• Evidence: Similar studies in countries like Denmark and the Netherlands raise concerns, though UK data is limited.

  🔸 Impact on International Students

✅Potential Positive Aspects:

• Clarity on Policy: Reduced net migration may bring more targeted and transparent immigration policies, including clearer rules for students.
• Reputation Boost: A perceived “control” over immigration may reduce public anxiety, potentially improving sentiment toward high-skilled migrants like international students.

⚠️ Potential Challenges:

• Stricter Visa Rules: As part of the crackdown on migration, student visa requirements may tighten, especially for dependents.
• Reduced Post-Study Opportunities: Graduate visa policies could face review or restrictions to ensure only “high-value” migrants remain.
• Pressure on Support Services: Continued concerns about strain on public services could influence public opinion on international students, especially if they bring dependents.

🔚 Summary

While the UK’s net migration has fallen significantly, immigration remains a politically sensitive issue. Starmer’s government will need to balance public pressure with economic needs. For international students, this may mean stricter visa controls but also a more stable and predictable policy environment if managed well.